The New Jersey Pine Barrens is a globally rare ecosystem where anuran populations are well adapted to the natural characteristics of the environment (i.e. frequent wildfires, acidic waters, nutrient poor soils). In recent decades, however, there has been an unprecedented decline in global amphibian abundance and biodiversity. Numerous studies have linked these declines to various anthropogenic forces, especially habitat alteration, fragmentation, and destruction. Past studies have established that hydroperiod is a key component of anuran community structure. The hydroperiod of intermittent ponds is naturally variable, but anthropogenic activities and climate change both have the potential to permanently alter pond hydroperiods, with serious consequences for their associated communities. We collected data on phenology, hydroperiod, and species richness for 20 ponds located in Burlington County in the New Jersey Pine Barrens. We used local precipitation data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in conjunction with water table data for the locally unconfined Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer to model changes to hydroperiod that assumed more variable and intense precipitation events, greater water table drawdown and longer periods of drought. Using these models, we then examined the potential impact of these changes on local anuran communities. Understanding the past, present, and future relationship between local hydrologic cycle/waterbody hydroperiod and species richness will be imperative for the long-term conservation of anurans at the community level.
